For one late-August weekend each season (since 2017, at least) the MLB lifts its rigid decree of uniformity to allow its players and coaches a wild weekend in which they can wear, in game, their very own custom cleats, gloves and Little League-style jerseys with hand-picked nicknames on the back. It’s just a great time for everyone involved.The Athletics have a rich history for nicknames, due in part to former owner Charles Finley’s — or Charlie O — affinity for them. Catfish Hunter is just …
2 December 2011 As delegates from 190 countries seek to negotiate a new international agreement for cutting carbon emissions at COP 17 in Durban, South Africa has urged Canada to reconsider entering into a second commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol. “South Africa believes the climate change talks must be inclusive to assist the process of ensuring a balanced outcome to emerge from the current talks,” Environmental Affairs Minister and leader of the South African delegation at COP 17, Edna Molewa, said in Durban on Thursday. Molewa said the effects of climate change were real and “already here with us”. The 17th Conference of the Parties (COP 17) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), currently taking place in Durban, is also the 7th meeting of parties to the Kyoto Protocol, which is due to expire at the end of 2012, unless renewed.Canada ‘made similar threats last year’ Reports say Canada, which has failed to meet its emissions reduction targets under the Kyoto Protocol, will announce next month that it will formally withdraw from the treaty. UNFCCC executive secretary Christiana Figueres confirmed this week that Canada had made similar threats to pull out of the Protocol last year. South Africa called on Canada and other developed countries to ensure that they heeded the call made by the developing countries, particularly in Africa and the Small Island Developing States, who bear the brunt of climate change.Kyoto Protocol ‘an important first step’ “The Kyoto Protocol is an important first step towards a truly multilateral rules-based legally binding global emission reduction regime that will stabilise GHG emissions, and provides the essential base for international agreement on climate change involving the participation of all countries in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and capabilities,” Molewa said. The first commitment period of the 1997 treaty is coming to an end next year, and developing countries are pushing for a second commitment period, but major economies, including the United States and Japan, are refusing to commit. Analysts say the reluctance by Canada to sign up for a second commitment may further strengthen the position by some developed countries that the Kyoto Protocol was “flawed”. The European Union has said it would agree to the new commitment to the Protocol but has placed conditions on this, including the demand for a change in the framework of the convention. Source: BuaNews
Tags:#cloud#cloud computing RedMonk analyst Stephen O’Grady tackles the question “What Factors Justify the Use of Apache Hadoop?” O’Grady cites two of the most common criticisms of Hadoop: 1) Most users don’t actually need to analyze big data 2) MapReduce is more complex than SQL. O’Grady confirms these criticisms, but finds Hadoop useful anyway.O’Grady acknowledges that volume isn’t the only factor in the complexity of a dataset. “Larger dataset sizes present unique computational challenges,” writes Grady. “But the structure, workload, accessibility and even location of the data may prove equally challenging.”RedMonk uses Hadoop to analyze both structured and unstructured datasets. There are a number of other tools the firm could use to analyze the data, so why Hadoop? O’Grady responds that datasets companies use aren’t big data yet, but they are growing rapidly.O’Grady says that RedMonk uses Big Sheets and Hive to work with Hadoop and avoid using Java to write queries.Cloudera recently published an announcement about how the company Tynt is using Cloudera’s Hadoop distribution. Tynt is a web analytics company that processes over 20 billion viewer events per month – over 20,000 events per second. Prior to adopting Hadoop, Tynt was adding multiple MySQL databases per week to deal with the data.Another example of a company that’s using Hadoop is Twitter. We covered Twitter’s use of Hadoop here. Twitter needs to use clusters for its data. The amount of data it stores every day is too great to be reliably written to a traditional hard drive. Twitter’s also found that SQL isn’t efficient enough to do analytics at the scale the company needs.Like RedMonk, Twitter avoids writing Java queries. However, it uses Pig instead of Hive.Twitter is working with 12 terrabytes of new data per day, significantly more than RedMonk uses. None the less, both companies are making good use of the technology.How have you used Hadoop? Have you ever found that it was too big for a project that you tackled? If so, what did you end up using instead?See also: Getting Started with Hadoop and Map Reduce Why Tech Companies Need Simpler Terms of Servic… A Web Developer’s New Best Friend is the AI Wai… Top Reasons to Go With Managed WordPress Hosting klint finley Related Posts 8 Best WordPress Hosting Solutions on the Market
How many mystery writers does it take to change a 60-watt lightbulb?Two — one to screw the bulb almost all the way in, and one to provide a surprising twist at the end.How many Energy Solutions columnists does it take to change a 60-watt lightbulb?One — all he does is tell you what a watt is and he doesn’t even change the lightbulb.If you are still with me, dear reader, you have chosen the columnist over the mystery writer. You are brave. (Or if you are just into lightbulb jokes, see my green building lightbulb jokes here.)Chances are, you may be worried about higher energy prices, global warming, energy insecurity, or all of the above and more. You may want to become more aware of your energy use, and become more efficient. A few weeks ago I wrote about radiation terminology; today I’m going to focus on energy terminology. Knowing is half the battle. Watts measure power — kilowatt-hours measure energyWhen you get your utility bill, the electricity you’ve used is measured in kilowatt -hours (kWh). While a watt is a measure of power, a kWh is a measure of energy. Energy is defined as the capacity to do work, such as creating heat, light, or motion. If you run a 60-watt lightbulb for one hour, you’ve used 60 watt-hours, or 0.06 kilowatt-hours, since a kWh is 1,000 watt-hours. In other words, 0.06 kWh is the amount of energy you need to run a lightbulb for an hour.Homes are typically charged only for the electricity they use, measured in kWh. But commercial and industrial facilities also pay “demand charges,” which are calculated based on their peak power draw (usually measured in megawatts, or MW), which compensates the electric utility for ensuring that it has enough power available to meet that demand. Appliances are rated based on powerBoilers and furnaces are also sized based on their heating power, in Btus per hour in the U.S., and in kilowatts elsewhere. A typical residential unit puts out 100,000 Btu/hr (29 kW) while commercial units tend to be much more powerful. A 100,000 Btu/hr boiler burning at full power for a day will produce 2.4 million Btus of heat (700 kWh).How much energy does your entire home or workplace use? Overall energy consumption of buildings, including both electricity and other fuels, is typically counted in million Btus per year (which is usually abbreviated as MMBtu — don’t ask).To get a single whole-building MMBtu number, we have to convert all fuel sources into that unit, and then add them up. You can find conversion ratios for doing this online, which include all fuel sources you might use, such as propane, cordwood, natural gas, coal, and others. The Home Energy Yardstick from the federal Energy Star program makes this really easy. Watts are like miles-per-hourLet’s start with that 60-watt lightbulb. Power is a measure of the rate at which energy flows, and in electrical systems it is measured in watts (W). Watts are basically the miles-per-hour measurement of the electrical world — they tell you how fast the electrons are speeding down the highway. For those who are keeping track, one watt is equivalent to electricity flowing at a rate of one joule per second in the metric system, which is also equivalent to 3.4 Btus per hour.A 60-watt lightbulb will consume electricity at a rate of 60 watts. A laborer working through the day will put out 75 watts of power. A medium-sized car might consume 100,000 watts. (One horsepower is equivalent to 750 watts, so that’s a 286-hp car.) A small gasoline generator puts out 2,000 watts; the Vermont Yankee nuclear power plant puts out 650 megawatts, or 650,000,000 watts. Many other pieces of equipment come with power ratings to describe the rate at which they use energy. Is replacing windows a waste of money?Dear Energy Solutions, I have heard that replacing windows is a waste of money. Is that really true? – PaulaDear Paula, A lot of people have the idea that replacing old windows is one of the first things they should do in an energy renovation of an old building. There are a lot of good reasons to replace old windows, and not all of them are about energy. These include aesthetics, maintenance issues, and comfort. (Yes, I consider comfort and energy to be different considerations. It can be very uncomfortable to sit next to an older single- or double-pane window in the winter, but in absolute terms, that window may not be costing you a ton of energy.) Any of these factors, along with overall energy use, may point you toward window replacement.I would slow down and look at other options, however. Analysis of “payback” is tricky, but there are credible calculations showing payback, based on energy saved, for window replacement, of 10–40 years. For most people, that’s a long time. There may be other measures, such as sealing up air leaks, that will improve your comfort and finances much faster. Rehabbing older windows, or simply adding storm windows, can also be very cost-effective, with paybacks of under 10 or even five years.What are your thoughts, questions, or comments on energy metrics, operating a solar array, and replacing windows? Please discuss below.Tristan Roberts is Editorial Director at BuildingGreen, Inc., in Brattleboro, Vermont, which publishes information on green building solutions. Read more Energy Solutions columns, including columns by Alex Wilson, for whom Tristan is filling in, on the Energy Solutions homepage. You can also keep up with Alex’s adventures on sabbatical at ATWilson.com. Getting to know metrics hands-onI got to know some of these metrics hands-on after I installed our solar photovoltaic power system. The system includes a charge controller which takes in power from the solar panels and feeds it to the batteries for storage. The controller includes a digital readout telling me exactly what the system is producing at any given time. I have 1,050 watts of panels, which means that under optimal conditions they are rated to produce that much power.In reality, the power on the readout is constantly changing as the sun and temperature conditions change. Solar panels like it cool, so on a nice cool, sunny April day, I might get a peak reading of 1,365 watts. Right now, with some clouds dancing across the sky, it’s reading 723 watts.As you know, watts measure rate. When you see a [no-glossary]cop[/no-glossary] on the Interstate and take your foot off the gas, you might drop from 70 mph to 65 mph in a few seconds. The same thing with the solar panels and sun. How far you have driven at the end of the day is determined by your average speed, and how long you drove. As I write this, my solar array has been online for 6:01, and has produced 2.13 kWh in that time. That’s about enough power to have done a load of dishes in my dishwasher. Comparing from one building to anotherIn order to compare energy use from one building to another, we typically normalize it by the building’s floor area, giving us energy numbers in thousand Btus per square foot per year (kBtu/ft2·yr). The average onsite energy use for office buildings in the U.S. is 76.3 kBtu/ft2·yr. The average for single-family detached homes is 43.8 kBtu/ft2·yr. (For multi-family homes of five-plus units, it’s 49.5; for mobile homes it’s 73.4 kBtu/ft2·yr. If these numbers look surprisingly high compared with single-family homes, keep in mind that we’re talking per-square-foot, not per-home.If all this feels intimidating, remember that (if you grew up in the U.S.) you’ve managed to master the arbitrary system of inches, feet, and yards. These energy metrics are much simpler!
These 10 tips are geared toward the FCP editor and will you get up to speed quickly with the nuances and new features in Premiere Pro CS6!Maybe you’ve come to Premiere Pro from Final Cut Pro or you’re a former Premiere editor looking to take advantage of the new features in CS6…In this post we’ll break down some of the changes in CS6, as well as offer up a few tips to make you a more successful Premiere Pro video editor!1. Setting Project & Scratch DiskWhen you Launch Premiere Pro for the first time you are greeted with a “New Project” dialog box. Here you choose where your Project and Scratch Disk are being saved. Premiere Pro defaults this to to user/documents/Adobe/Premiere Pro (your Scratch Disks and Preview files follow the project by default). Be aware that if you are working with tapeless media, you have to manually move your files from the card to your scratch disk, as tapeless files are considered imports and not captured media.Personally, I save my media/projects to a folder on my media drive (fastest drive). I put my Premiere Auto Saves & Previews/Renders on a separate drive and back up the projects to Dropbox daily. Whatever strategy you choose, please back up your project! If you forget or need to change your scratch after launching the project, go to Project>Project Settings>Scratch Disk to make modifications.Post Haste is a free software application that will help you with this file organization. It creates a folder structure for you, and you can modify the defaults and create your own templates.An additional resource is this handy guide for disk setups on the Adobe forums. 2. Workspace ShortcutsCreating workspace shortcuts will speed up your editing work. My rule of thumb is to make a shortcut for anything you use on a daily basis.Here’s a general guide to customizing shortcuts in Adobe Premiere Pro that’s worth a look. A few of the workspace shortcuts I use religiously:Control + U – Reset my current layout when it gets disorganized and messyCommand + 1 – Audio WorkspaceCommand + 2 – Color Correction WorkspaceCommand + 3 – Editing Workspace3. Working with Clips in a SequenceBy default when you drag a clip into a Sequence from the Source Window you perform an Overwrite Edit. If you’d like to perform an Insert Edit instead (pushes other clips down the timeline) hold Command (MAC) or Control (PC) when you drag the clip to the sequence.Often you will want to rearrange the order of clips in a Sequence. Select the clip, drag the clip to a new location, then hold Command/Control + Option/Alt before you let go of the mouse (make sure snapping is turned on). This is called a Swap Edit.4. Maximize Window ShortcutEnlarge the window you’re working in by placing your cursor over the window you want to maximize and press tilde (below the escape key). Press it again and it reverts back.I use this constantly.5. Render from “In and Out”The work area defines what clips and effects are rendered. I prefer to use “in and out” instead, as this is a standard editing convention. This setting is in the Sequence Menu pulldown. When you change this, it also changes the Sequence Menu settings to “in & out” instead of work area.Here’s two Premiere Pro render shortcuts that are worth memorizing and using!Render In/Outs – Command + RRender Effects – Option + R6. Show Audio Time UnitsThis lets you work with audio in smaller increments – particularly helpful when removing a pop or other audio issue. In the Timeline Menu pull down select “Show Audio Time Units”.You can read more on this here.7. Clip Usage in SequencesThere’s a quick way to find out where and how many times a video clip has been used in a Premiere Pro sequence. If you select a clip in the project window, at the top of window to the right of the thumbnail viewer, you will see details about the clip, including how many times it has been used in a sequence. If you click on the “clip usage” pulldown, select the instance of the clip you want to see and it will open that sequence if it is in multiple sequences. This is a handy way to find clips.8. Change Track HeightIn FCP 7 you could change the track height in the Timeline of video & audio tracks with the shortcut Shift +T or by clicking the Toggle Timeline icon. In Premiere Pro you can assign a shortcut to increase/decrease the video/audio track height (unfortunately however it’s not a toggle).You can use the FCP shortcut of Shift +T, but it conflicts with the default “Reveal Nested Sequence”. Instead, I use Cmd + H to increase track height and Option + Command + H to decrease track height. Note: The tracks have to be expanded for this to work successfully.9. Sync LockUncheck Sync Lock when you want a Premiere Pro track to stay in place. A common use for this is when you don’t want your music track to get pushed down when you perform an Insert Edit. See the highlighted sync lock button below.By default Insert Edit will push all tracks down unless Sync Unlock is off or the track is locked.10. Creating MarkersTo create a marker in a Premiere Pro sequence, use the shortcut “M”. You can see your markers in the markers Panel, change their length and add comments (very useful for adding editing or producers notes).To create a marker on a clip, load the clip into the Source Window & press “M”. The Marker Panel with show sequence markers if the Sequence is selected, or clip markers if the Source is selected.Selecting the Marker in the Marker Panel will take you to the marker in the clip or sequence – a big Premiere Pro timesaver!BONUS TIP: Using Hover ScrubPremiere Pro CS 6 defaults to Icon view, instead of list view like previous versions. Put your cursor over an icon, and the clip will play backwards or forwards as you drag your mouse. If you click on the clip you you get a yellow bar (shows the “in & out” points) and a playhead.You can drag the playhead, or use the J, K or L shortcuts to play the clip. You can set in & out with I & O.The filmstrip icon indicates clip usage in the project and the waveform icon indicates the clip has linked audio.Got a Premiere Pro tip to share?Share it in the comments below!
Trump tells impeachment jokes at annual turkey pardon event CONSISTENTThe Magic have used the same starting lineup in 28 straight games, going back to Jan. 23. To put that in some perspective, since Jan. 23 the Heat have used eight different starting lineups.PECULIARThe Heat are now 2-2 in jersey-retirement games. They won when retiring jerseys for Shaquille O’Neal and Tim Hardaway, but lost when hoisting one for Alonzo Mourning — also against Orlando, and also in the 74th Heat game of the season, just like Tuesday night.UP NEXTMagic: Visit Detroit on Thursday.Heat: Host Dallas on Thursday.Sports Related Videospowered by AdSparcRead Next Colombia protesters vow new strike after talks hit snag The Heat led by 17 in the first half, settling for a 51-42 lead at the break — a 35-minute halftime in real time, because of the length of the ceremony paying tribute to Bosh.Orlando clearly wasn’t deterred by the longer-than-usual intermission. The Magic controlled the third quarter, taking their first lead of the game with 5:11 left in the period on a 3-pointer by Issac. Orlando shot 57 percent in the quarter, held the Heat to 30 percent from the floor in those 12 minutes, outscored Miami by 15 points and took a 76-70 lead into the fourth.Orlando pushed the lead out to eight early in the fourth, before a 10-2 Heat run — fueled in part by a four-point play from Wade — tied the game at 82. Unbothered yet again, Orlando scored nine of the next 11 points and went up 91-84 on a 3-pointer by Vucevic with 5:56 remaining.Miami has eight games left, which would be the last eight games of Wade’s career if the playoffs are missed.“We’re in the fight,” Wade said. “We’ve got a chance.”TIP-INSMagic: This game started a four-game trip against East playoff contenders, with stops left in Detroit, Indiana and Toronto. “We’re going to have to go on the road and do it, but we have more than enough talent,” Orlando coach Steve Clifford said. … This was the 14th and final back-to-back of the season for the Magic. They were 10-4 in openers, 6-8 in second games.Heat: Wade played against Orlando for the 53rd and presumably final time. He’s faced the Magic more times in the regular season than he has any other team. … Justise Winslow turned 23 on Tuesday and sat out his sixth consecutive game with a thigh bruise. The Heat were also missing Rodney McGruder (knee). … Kelly Olynyk played 23 minutes and is now 88 shy of 1,700 for the season — and a $1 million bonus.MILESTONEWade now has 23,004 points in his career, the 30th NBA player to cross that threshold. He still has a chance of catching Elgin Baylor (23,133) for 29th on the league’s career list. Orlando Magic forward Aaron Gordon (00) drives to the basket past Miami Heat forward Kelly Olynyk (9) in the first quarter during an NBA basketball game Tuesday, March 26, 2019, in Miami.(AP Photo/Joe Skipper)MIAMI— There was no raucous celebration by the Orlando Magic.Getting to eighth place now, that’s not their goal. Being there — or higher — in two weeks is what matters, and on Tuesday night the Magic looked very much like a team poised to end a long postseason drought.ADVERTISEMENT Google Philippines names new country director MOST READ LATEST STORIES “It’s really encouraging. It’s fun,” Gordon said. “There’s an energy, there’s a buzz in the gym when we come in, and it’s just a beautiful thing.”Dion Waiters scored 26 points for Miami, which lost on the night the Heat raised Chris Bosh’s No. 1 jersey to the rafters in a halftime retirement ceremony. Dwyane Wade scored 22 points and Josh Richardson added 17 for the Heat, who are assured of a losing home record this season — they’re 17-21 with three games left in Miami.“You’re going to feel great joy from wins and you’re going to feel great pain from losses,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. “That’s how you want to be measured.”Orlando dominated Miami on the backboards, outrebounding the Heat 55-39.Waiters made a 3-pointer with 14 seconds left to get Miami within three, but Augustin made a pair of foul shots to seal the win.ADVERTISEMENT Don’t miss out on the latest news and information. Bloomberg: US would benefit from more, not fewer, immigrants Panelo: Duterte ‘angry’ with SEA Games hosting hassles Nikola Vucevic scored 24 points and grabbed 16 rebounds, Jonathan Issac added 19 and the Magic extended their longest winning streak in eight years to six games by topping the Miami Heat 104-99.“This time of year is when it’s the most important,” Vucevic said. “We’re fighting for a playoff spot and to win six is really huge and it gives us a big advantage right now so we’ve got to keep it up.”FEATURED STORIESSPORTSPrivate companies step in to help SEA Games hostingSPORTSPalace wants Cayetano’s PHISGOC Foundation probed over corruption chargesSPORTSSingapore latest to raise issue on SEA Games food, logisticsD.J. Augustin scored 17 points and Aaron Gordon finished with 14 points and 10 rebounds for the Magic (37-38), who won the season series with Miami 3-1 and moved past the Heat (36-38) into eighth in the Eastern Conference playoff race.Evan Fournier scored 11 points for Orlando, which hasn’t had a winning streak this long since January 2011. Wintry storm delivers US travel woes before Thanksgiving Cayetano: Senate, Drilon to be blamed for SEA Games mess Private companies step in to help SEA Games hosting PH underwater hockey team aims to make waves in SEA Games PLAY LIST 02:42PH underwater hockey team aims to make waves in SEA Games01:44Philippines marks anniversary of massacre with calls for justice01:19Fire erupts in Barangay Tatalon in Quezon City01:07Trump talks impeachment while meeting NCAA athletes02:49World-class track facilities installed at NCC for SEA Games02:11Trump awards medals to Jon Voight, Alison Krauss Kemba Walker heats up in OT as Hornets sting Spurs View comments
APTN National NewsOTTAWA—Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has invited Attawapiskat Chief Bruce Shisheesh to meet in Ottawa about the suicide crisis that has gripped his community.“I am deeply concerned with the ongoing situation in your community, and with the urgency and gravity of this in mind, I am unhesitatingly willing to accept your offer to meet,” wrote Trudeau in a letter dated May 5.The prime minister’s letter is in response to one Shisheesh penned on May 3 inviting Trudeau to meet to discuss the suicide crisis that has gripped his community for more than a month.“I am writing to you today on a matter of life and death,” Shisheesh wrote in his letter. “Your intervention is immediately required.”In early April, Shisheesh and the Attawapiskat council declared a state of emergency because of the high number of young people who have either attempted to take their own lives or discussed it.Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s letter to Attawapiskat Chief Bruce Shisheesh.Download (PDF, Unknown)The federal government responded by providing mental health workers and Minister of Indigenous Affairs Carolyn Bennett flew to the community to meet with a youth council, elders and leadership.Bennett also promised to fund a youth centre and provide more money for programs.“As Minister of Youth and Prime Minister, I am agonized to see the number of suicide attempts by young people in Attawapiskat, and I wish to express my sincere support for the families and the community members who are affected by this tragic situation,” said Trudeau, in the letter.Pressure to sit down with Shisheesh mounted after Trudeau flew to Shoal Lake 40 last week for a tour of the community. Chief Erwin Redsky told APTN National News he encouraged the prime minister to meet with Shisheesh to talk about the crisis.According to the letter, no date has been set.“My office will very shortly be in contact with you in order to arrange a meeting in Ottawa at a mutually convenient time.”[email protected]@APTNNews
How the Warriors have fared with and without KD and CurrySince 2016-17, playoffs and regular season 4June 7Golden State4080Warriors by 3 Curry + KD✓✓111.796.1+15.6 ✓98.498.9-0.5 GameDateLocationDurantCousinsFTE point spread Curry + Klay✓✓109.097.0+12.0 2June 2Toronto1060Raptors by 5 The most obvious conclusion from the lineup data, in fact, is that Curry is a lot better than Durant. With Durant but not Curry playing, the Warriors outscore opponents by a pedestrian 1.7 points per 100 possessions. But that’s not the same as saying they’re better without Durant. That’s especially true on offense, when there don’t appear to be any diminishing returns from having both Durant and Curry in the lineup at once.Dig a little deeper, and you find that while Curry and Durant work just fine as a tandem, there may be some diminishing returns from playing Durant and Thompson together. Lineups with Durant and Klay playing but Curry off the floor have been mediocre, perhaps because Durant doesn’t like to pass and Thompson relies heavily on assisted field goals. Furthermore, lineups with Curry and Durant but without Thompson have been better than lineups with all three together. The Warriors give up a bit of offense in those lineups, but they make up for it with superior defense by having players such as Iguodala on the floor. 5June 10Toronto5090Raptors by 2.5 Durant is out for at least Game 1, with no clear timetable for his return. Cousins is questionable for Game 1, but from the tone of the Warriors’ comments, he looks highly likely to return at some point in the series.You can see the impact of Golden State’s injuries in the evolving point spreads that our model establishes for each game of the series. In Game 1 — with Durant out and Cousins 50 percent likely to play (based on the very rough science of translating the Warriors’ vague injury guidance into probabilities) — the Raptors are 6-point favorites at home, per our model. In the event of a Game 7 in Toronto, by which point we assume that Cousins is definitely back and Durant is 80 percent likely to play — they’d be only 1-point favorites, conversely. Toronto would also be 4.5-point underdogs on the road in Oakland in Game 6. If the Raptors don’t strike early in the series, the odds will shift dramatically against them. 6June 13Golden State70100Warriors by 4.5 7June 16Toronto80100Raptors by 1 If our NBA model could talk, here’s what it might say about the NBA Finals:Bleep, bleep, bloop. Based on their accomplishments over the past few seasons, the Golden State Warriors are better than the Toronto Raptors at full strength. However, the Warriors will start the NBA Finals without Kevin Durant, and possibly also without DeMarcus Cousins. To state the obvious, being without those guys makes them a worse team. Meanwhile, Toronto is also a really good team, and its regular-season record somewhat understates its performance because its current lineup is stronger than it was for most of the season. Plus, the Raptors have home-court advantage. Run the numbers, and the Raptors come out as slight favorites in the series. Bloop, bloop, bleep.Make sense? Well apparently not, at least not to those of you who are wagering your hard-earned income on the series. Betting market prices imply that the Warriors are about 72 percent favorites to win the championship.We think our NBA forecasts, in their current, improved form, are pretty smart, but we also think sports betting markets tend to be really smart. (Note: This isn’t true for political betting markets, which are mostly pretty dumb.) So we wouldn’t suggest that you go out and wager all your loonies on the Raptors to become the first Candian team to win a title in a “Big 4” sport since … to the chagrin of literally every Canadian NHL team … the 1993 Toronto Blue Jays.Still, it’s interesting to see the series through our model’s eyes. So while we also talked about our forecast on this week’s edition of Hot Takedown, I want to go through it in more detail here. Basically, I’m going to work through everything in the italicized paragraph, starting with the least controversial claims and moving to the most contentious ones.“Run the numbers, and the Raptors come out as slight favorites in the series.”OK, so that’s actually the most contentious claim — we’ll loop back to it at the end. But I do want to point out that “slight” really does mean “slight” in this instance. The Raptors are merely 55 percent favorites in the series, at least based on our current understanding (as of early Wednesday morning) of the injury prognosis for Durant and Cousins. In our election forecasts, we’d label a race like that as a “toss-up.”“Plus, the Raptors have home-court advantage.”In a seven-game series between two equal-strength teams, the home team should win about 54 percent of the time, according to our model. So basically, the entirety of the Raptors’ very small edge in the series is because a Game 7 would be played in Toronto. If the Warriors had won two more regular-season games and had home-court advantage instead, they’d be roughly 53 percent favorites to win the series, per our model.And if anything, our model might be understating the impact of home-court advantage in this series. The Warriors are generally regarded as having one of the biggest home-court advantages in the league, and Toronto is 40-11 at home between the regular season and the playoffs.“Based on their accomplishments over the past few seasons, the Golden State Warriors are better than the Toronto Raptors at full strength.”Our NBA team projections are derived from our CARMELO player projections, which use data from the past three seasons plus the current season.That’s a good thing for the Warriors, because if you based the projections based on this season’s data alone, the Raptors would be more substantial favorites. Three of their five starters — Pascal Siakam, Danny Green, Marc Gasol — have significantly outperformed their preseason CARMELO projections. (Reserve swingman Norman Powell has also outperformed them to a lesser extent.) For the Warriors, conversely, Cousins significantly fell short of his preseason projections — no doubt because of his injuries — and his current projection is probably too optimistic. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green also slightly underperformed their projections, although Green has been great in these playoffs. Andre Iguodala and Kevin Looney have outperformed their projections, but overall, the Warriors are helped by the fact that we’re looking at multiple years of data.So even though both teams played about equally well this year — the Raptors went 58-24 to the Warriors’ 57-25, but the Warriors had a slightly better point differential and played a slightly tougher schedule — our model would have the Warriors as 65 percent favorites if each team was at full strength to start the series (or 69 percent if the whole series were played on a neutral court).1The Raptors’ only current injury is to backup swingman OG Anunoby; our model actually thinks they’re slightly better off without Anunoby since it likes the rest of their reserves better, so his injury actually helps their rating slightly. The 65 percent figure refers to the version of the Raptors with Anunoby healthy. This reflects the Warriors’ accomplishments over the past several seasons in addition to having more playoff experience, a factor that our model accounts for — although the Raptors, with former NBA Finals MVP Leonard as well as Green (118 career playoff games), Kyle Lowry (80) and Gasol (77), have plenty of experience of their own.In other words, our model takes some countermeasures to the fact that veteran, championship-driven teams like the Warriors tend to lollygag their way through the regular season. It looks at longer-term performance, and it accounts for playoff experience, as well as the increased playing time that’s given to top players in the playoffs, which helps top-heavy teams like Golden State. Is it doing enough to account for those factors? Maybe not, and our model has had plenty of challenges with teams like the Warriors and LeBron James’s Cavaliers in the past. But it’s at least aware of these issues, and it doesn’t hold the Warriors’ good-but-not-great regular season all that much against them.“Toronto is also a really good team, and its regular-season record somewhat understates its performance because its current lineup is stronger than it was for most of the season.”The Raptors were often without the services of what our model regards as their two best players. They played 22 regular-season games without Leonard, who was frequently rested for “load management,” as well as 17 games without Lowry. In addition, they only acquired Gasol in February, and he’s a significantly better player than the center he replaced, Jonas Valanciunas, according to our model. It also took some time for Toronto to take full advantage of Siakam, who played fewer minutes and took fewer shots early in the season.Thus, the current version of the Raptors is associated with an Elo rating that would peg them not as a 58-win team, but somewhere in the mid-60s instead.Until recently, however, that elite version of the Raptors existed mostly on paper. The Lowry-Green-Leonard-Siakam-Gasol lineup played only 161 regular-season minutes, although it was highly effective when it did play, outscoring opponents by 12.2 points per 100 possessions. That group has now played 314 minutes together in the playoffs, and — somewhat remarkably given that the Raptors have been playing extremely tough competition in the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers — it’s still outscoring opponents by 12.1 points per 100 possessions.So Toronto’s starting lineup has begun to prove itself — you have to be really good to win four straight games against the Bucks, who were the NBA’s best regular-season team. And I should probably mention that our model also had the Raptors slightly favored against Milwaukee2In fact, as 55 percent favorites, the same as it currently has them against Golden State. despite the Bucks having been heavily favored in Las Vegas.“However, the Warriors will start the NBA Finals without Kevin Durant, and possibly also without DeMarcus Cousins. To state the obvious, being without those guys makes them a worse team.” Curry✓108.296.4+11.8 From ABC News: LineupCurryDurantOff. RatingDef. RatingNet Rating KD + Klay✓✓101.2100.6+0.6 KD✓102.3100.6+1.7 Neither You’d think that all of that seems pretty reasonable. Our model is saying that having Durant and Cousins healthy-ish instead of injured-ish is worth about 5 points per game to the Warriors.But that’s not the narrative surrounding the Warriors at the moment. Instead, the stat you’ve probably heard is this one: 31-1. That is, the Warriors are 31-1 in their last 32 games without Durant but with Stephen Curry playing. This has lead to plenty of talk-radio chatter about whether the Warriors are better off without Durant, who has an option to become a free agent at the end of the season.Like most narratives, that one leaves out some of the messy details. Our ESPN colleague Kevin Pelton has a long, detailed breakdown of the Warriors’ play with and without Durant. I’d suggest you read the whole thing. For one thing, that 31-1 record overstates the case somewhat, since it arbitrarily ignores the first six games that the Warriors played without KD (counting those, they’re 34-4) and since their point differential wasn’t quite as strong as their record in those games would suggest. Those games were also played against a fairly easy schedule.Perhaps more importantly, Pelton finds based on game-by-game data that being without Durant lowered the Warriors’ ceiling. With both Durant and Curry in the lineup, the Warriors had so much firepower that they could take possessions off against mediocre teams, especially on the defensive end. In the NBA Finals, however, the Warriors will presumably be playing every possession at close to maximum effort, with or without Durant. So they’re deprived of a top gear they would have had with him healthy.We can also look at the Warriors’ lineup data over the past three seasons (including both the regular season and the playoffs), which accounts for their performance on a possession-by-possession basis with various combinations of players. With both Curry and Durant on the floor, the Warriors outscored opponents by a dominating 15.2 points per 100 possessions. With Curry only, that number falls to 11.8 points per 100 possessions. That’s still a very good number — Curry is impossibly good! — but it’s in the same ballpark as the Raptors’ current starting lineup, and the Raptors have more depth and home-court advantage. Likelihood of playing for Kevin Durant and DeMarcus Cousins reflect our subjective estimates based on news accounts about their conditions. How KD, Curry and Klay play togetherSince 2016-17, playoffs and regular season The Warriors will get tougher to beat as they get healthierFiveThirtyEight point spread for the NBA finals 95.699.6-4.0 LineupCurryDurantThompsonOff RatingDef RatingNet Rating Klay only But the thing is, our projections actually account for all of this on-court/off-court data, at least to some extent. One of the metrics we use to fuel our projections, Real Plus-Minus (RPM), is largely based on the lineup data. So the fact the Warriors have played quite well with Curry but without Durant is accounted for in their respective ratings. Our forecasts think that Curry is quite a bit better than Durant — if Steph were injured instead of KD, it would really have Golden State in trouble.You can also go too far in looking at the on-court, off-court stats. They can be noisy, and there are also a lot of technical complications in evaluating so many five-player lineup combinations together. In fact, we’ve found that RPM (which itself is a blend of box score statistics3e.g. points, rebounds, assists, steals. and lineup data) actually goes slightly too far in using the lineup data, so we hedge against it by blending it with another metric based on box score statistics called Box Plus/Minus or BPM.“Run the numbers, and the Raptors come out as slight favorites in the series.”So do I — Nate as a basketball fan, not as a model co-designer — really buy what our model says?I mostly buy the part about the Raptors being better than they’re given credit for. Their current starting lineup has been very good, and I can imagine the betting public sleeping on it a bit because it’s involved several fairly subtle changes (e.g. upgrading Valanciunas for Gasol, Leonard playing every game, etc.). Nor do I see any obvious flaws with the Raptors, who can work effectively as either an up-tempo team (perhaps with Gasol off the floor) or in the half-court, with Leonard draining midrange jumpers and corner threes.Leonard’s health is a concern, however, particularly insofar as it could affect his ability to effectively defend Curry, a tempting matchup for the Raptors.As for how the model is evaluating the Warriors, I’m less sure. As I mentioned, the metrics behind our model (RPM and BPM) don’t actually like Durant that much; while he was repeatedly going off for massive games against the Clippers and Rockets, a few of us were complaining that the model underrated him. But there are a couple of things that worry me. First, although we have a few tricks to try to account for the Warriors’ variable effort level, their indifference during parts of the past few regular seasons may be contaminating the data to some degree. Second, our model tends to assume that building a lineup is a fairly linear process, when it isn’t. The Warriors are insulated against the loss of Durant to some degree because Thompson functions better as Curry’s Splash Brother sidekick than as a third wheel in Curry-Durant lineups.The handful of minutes each game that the Warriors play without Curry on the floor are liable to be a disaster, however, and if Leonard somehow can bottle up Curry the same way he did Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Warriors are probably toast. And I think our model actually overrates Cousins, who isn’t likely to play up to his projections while recovering from his multiple injuries.Overall, I think our model is mostly right about the Raptors, but more wrong than right about the Warriors. Since it only has the Raptors as extremely narrow favorites, that might be enough to tip the balance slightly in Golden State’s favor. But I find it hard to contemplate how the Warriors can be as heavy as 3-to-1 favorites, as they nearly are in Vegas. There is, if nothing else, a lot of uncertainty about how well the Warriors can play against a top-level team without Durant — I’m sorry if I don’t regard the Portland Trail Blazers as a top-level team — and the Raptors are good enough that the Warriors will probably have to bring their A-game.Bleep, bleep, bloop. None of them 3June 5Golden State3070Warriors by 2.5 Curry + KD✓✓115.099.8+15.2 107.195.7+11.4 Lineups are weighted by minutes playedSource: NBA Curry + KD + Klay✓✓✓115.9100.9+15.0 Check out our latest NBA predictions. 1May 30Toronto0%50%Raptors by 6 91.6100.5-8.9 Likelihood of playing Lineups are weighted by minutes playedSource: NBA KD only✓104.9100.6+4.3 Curry only✓
Joao Mario thanked Inter Milan fans for their support and revealed his surprise start against Lazio was a product of hard work and maturity.Mario last featured for Inter in a 1-1 draw with Fiorentina on January 5. And the former Hammers trainee had to settle for the bench but was surprisingly picked in the starting XI for the 3-0 victory over Lazio.“I prepared well and am trying to train to the max every day in order to earn this opportunity,” the 25-year-old said on Football Italia.“The most important thing is to be ready. It was my turn in this game and I am very happy.”Report: Inter go top with win over Udinese George Patchias – September 14, 2019 Inter Milan are top of Serie A after beating Udinese to make it three wins out of three.Antonio Conte’s career at Inter Milan, could…It’s a far cry from the player signed for €40m from Sporting CP in 2016 and who declared only a few months ago that he didn’t like Italian football.“I have grown up a great deal. It is in moments of difficulty that you really grow up as a person and I’ve been through a lot of those. I try to do better, become another person and another player.“I said that I wanted to transform the jeers of the fans into applause. I am happy the supporters gave me this gift of applause as I left the field and I thank them.“Now it’ll be important for me to be ready at all times, so I’ll keep working hard.”